COI Terminal Comet Ridge

Background: Comet Ridge at a 52-week low

Every figure on this page is as at 30 September 2026, with prices at 10:33am AEST that day. The live price and indicators are on Overview and Charts. This page sets out facts, dates and sources. It does not recommend any action.

Data: ASX via Market Index and Yahoo Finance (254 daily bars), COI annual report FY2026 (lodged 24 Sep 2026), ASX announcements June to September 2026, AEMO, ACCC, broker targets via TipRanks and MarketScreener. General information only, not personal financial advice.

Last price
7.6c
Bid 7.6c, ask 7.7c. New 52-week low.
From April high
-56.6%
17.5c on 23 Apr 2026
Market cap
$127.6m
1,679.0m shares on issue
Stochastic (14,3,3)
2 / 8
%K and %D. 7 of the last 30 sessions under 20.
RSI (14)
31.9
Not yet under 30
Below placement price
66 of 66
Every session since 1 July closed under 10.25c

1. What has happened since April

  1. A discounted raise, and the price has not returned to the raise price. On 24 June COI placed $40m at 10.25c, a 21% discount to the 13.0c close. Shares on issue went from 1,196m to 1,679m (+40%) once the two tranches, the SPP and the 83.8m Santos consideration shares were issued. The stock has closed below 10.25c on all 66 sessions since 1 July. The SPP raised $0.88m of a $5m target.
  2. The FY2026 accounts (24 September) carry a going-concern note. Note 2(d) and the auditor's report flag a material uncertainty, tied to a CleanCo financial liability that is "not presently funded", net current liabilities of $11.0m, and the PURE loan ($9.5m at 12%, due 30 June 2027). Cash was $27.7m at 30 June, and about $24.4m went to Santos in August. Cash after that payment, tranche 2 ($9.4m) and the SPP has not been disclosed; the September quarterly report will show it. The results day traded 10.4m shares, five times normal, and the price has fallen 9.5% since.
  3. The project timeline moved out three years. The CleanCo gas sales agreement was reset on 30 June: first supply moved from January 2027 to January 2030, take-or-pay was cut from 90% to 80%, and financing, processing and transport conditions are now due by 31 March 2027. The company has given no FID date and describes its work as "optimising FEED". Funding is open between debt (NAIF due diligence), farm-out and gas prepay.
  4. Policy announcement in May. The federal 20% gas reservation announcement on 7 May coincided with a 3% fall in the ASX 200 Energy index that day. COI said it had no direct impact but also that the announcement "severely disrupted" its capital raising, which led to the Santos deal being reworked in May and the discounted raise in June. The policy was softened on 10 September.
  5. Weak domestic gas prices. Wallumbilla spot fell below $8/GJ in June, the weakest winter since 2020, while Brent traded above US$100. Domestic developers de-rated: Amplitude Energy is 49% off its high. Beetaloo (BTL) and Omega (OMA) held up better.
  6. Holder changes. Regal Partners came in at 5.2% on 1 July and was under 5% by 13 August, having sold 3.7m shares at 8.4c to 9.0c. It still holds about 74m shares (4.4%). Short interest is 0.14%.

2. Volume and the register

What the tape shows

  • Average volume has fallen. The 50-day average is 2.5m, the 20-day 2.0m and the 4-week 2.06m. Volume that morning was 173k at 10:33am.
  • On-balance volume dropped 36m shares in 60 days, from -21.9m to -58.0m: more shares changed hands on down days than on up days.
  • September's falls came on below-average volume. 9 Sep (-5.3%, 0.84m), 15 Sep (-6.7%, 1.0m) and 28 Sep (-4.9%, 1.3m).
  • The 24 September results day (10.4m shares, 5.1 times average) was the heaviest session in the period. The price held between 7.8c and 8.5c that day, and the low has been retested since.
  • The turnover-weighted price since 1 July is 8.74c, and for September it is 8.42c.

Who is on the register

HolderSharesNowRecent activity
Copia Investment Partners272.6m16.2%Bought three times in H1 (last notice 19 Jun at 22.78% pre-dilution). No notice since.
Santos QNT83.8m5.0%Received as deal consideration 24 Aug. Escrow not disclosed.
Regal Partners~74m4.4%Sold 3.7m from July to August and fell under 5%.
Chair James McKay76.8m4.6%Took $69k of tranche 2 at 10.25c.
MD Tor McCaul10.8m0.6%Took $69k of tranche 2 at 10.25c.
Mark McCabe (NED)0.5m0.03%Bought on market 10 Aug at 8.4c.
Placement holders390m23.2%Issued at 10.25c. Free to trade.

Options and warrants outstanding: 199m options at 15c (to June 2028) and 55m warrants at about 12c. All are out of the money at the current price. Exercise of all of them would add about 15% to the share count.

3. Technical readings

How the stochastic works

The stochastic compares the close with the 14-day range. A %K of 2 means the last close was at the very bottom of the last 14 days. %D, the 3-day average of %K, was 8. Readings under 20 are conventionally called oversold. In a downtrend the indicator can stay under 20 for weeks, so the label describes position in the range, not what comes next.

An oversold cross is %K moving above %D while both are under 20. As at 30 September it had not occurred. The last one (around 8 September) was followed by two up days, and the price then fell back from 9.4c. The Overview page flags this signal when it occurs.

Other readings

  • MACD was -0.0033, below its signal line of -0.0023, with the histogram widening.
  • Bollinger Bands (20, 2): lower band 7.5c, upper 9.5c. The price was sitting on the lower band.
  • ATR (14): 0.5c a day, or 6.7% of the price.
  • RSI 31.9: it had not printed below 30 in the last 30 sessions.
  • Averages: the price was below the 20-day (8.5c), 50-day (8.7c) and 200-day (12.1c) averages. The 200-day was 59% above the market.

4. Where the volume sits

Over the last 120 sessions the heaviest node is 9.0c, and almost nothing has traded below 7.5c in a year. Live volume by price is on the charts page.

LevelWhat it is
10.25cPlacement price, 390m shares issued here
9.9cFibonacci 23.6% retracement of the April to September fall
9.0cHeaviest volume node (85.5m shares) and the early-September range
8.5c to 8.7c20-day and 50-day averages; 54m shares traded at 8.5c
7.5cLower Bollinger band; 2.1m shares traded at this level
5.5c to 6.2c2016 and 2021 year-end closes

5. Fundamentals and valuation

Balance sheet (FY2026, 30 June)

  • Cash $27.7m, before the $24.4m Santos payment in August
  • Net current liabilities $11.0m (CleanCo financial liability, PURE loan, warrant liability)
  • PURE loan $9.5m at 12%, matures 30 June 2027
  • Net loss $4.4m; capitalised exploration and FEED $8.4m
  • Contingent: $30m to Santos in three $10m milestones on cumulative gas sales
  • Board statement: "confident of being able to source funding at the necessary time"

Asset

  • Mahalo Gas Hub, 100% owned: 361 PJ 2P, 676 PJ 2P+2C, 1,850 km2
  • Jemena pipeline licence (85 km) granted June 2026
  • CleanCo GSA 21 to 25 PJ from 2030; Highview MOU 3.6 PJ/yr (non-binding)
  • No commercial production yet. Pilot wells only.

What the price implies

  • Market cap of $127.6m over 361 PJ of 2P is about $0.35 per GJ of 2P reserves.
  • Santos received $24.4m cash plus $8.6m in shares (and up to $30m contingent) for its 42.86%, about 155 PJ of 2P. That is roughly $0.21/GJ firm, or $0.40/GJ including the contingent payments. The market capitalisation per GJ is close to the price of that transaction.
  • Broker targets pre-date the results and the fall: Morgans 27c (a lead manager on the raise), RBC 24c (January), Bell Potter 14c, Canaccord 14c hold. The consensus is about 18c. They are dated June 2026 or earlier.
  • AEMO identifies southern gas shortfall risk from winter 2029. COI's stated first gas date of 2030 falls after that window opens.

6. Catalyst calendar

WhenEventWhat it covers
By 30 Oct 2026September quarterly report (Appendix 5B)Closing cash after the Santos payment, quarterly spend, any NAIF or farm-out progress
Nov 2026 (expected)AGMFunding update, FID pathway, any strategic process. Date not confirmed.
Late 2026 to Q1 2027Gas reservation legislationFinal form of the 20% scheme and start date (2027 or 2028)
31 Mar 2027CleanCo conditions precedentFinancing, processing and transport agreements are due. If they are missed the GSA can lapse, which triggers the liability.
30 Jun 2027PURE loan maturity$9.5m to repay or refinance
Winter 2027ACCC southern shortfall risk (Q2 and Q3 2027)Domestic spot prices across the east coast market
Any timeCorporate actionCopia holds 16% and Santos 5%. No bid has been announced.

7. Not yet disclosed

Sources

Estimated or unverified items are labelled in the text: cash after August (not disclosed), Santos share escrow (not disclosed), Regal's residual holding (derived from the notice), the warrant exercise price after the August reset, and the AGM date. Broker targets are dated June 2026 or earlier. Indicators are computed from Yahoo Finance daily data; halt days (19 to 20 May, 22 to 23 Jun) carry the prior close and zero volume. This page is general information and is not personal financial advice.